Possible Scenarios For Developing EU Trade Relations With Russia

Abstract

The study presents general scenarios for the future development of EU trade relations with Russia, which are conditionally marked as ‘stagnation’, ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’. The dynamics of the sanctions regime is used as a key indicator for distinguishing these scenarios. We associate the first scenario, called ‘stagnation’, with the expectations of a serious slowdown in the economic growth of the EU and Russia. The second, described as ‘optimistic’, is based on expectations for a gradual recovery and development of the trade relations between the two countries over a long period of time. The third scenario is defined as ‘pessimistic’, given the consolidated tightening of anti-Russian sanctions within the transatlantic alliance and the expansion of Russia’s countermeasures.