AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT FUNCTION FOR BULGARIA ALLOWING FOR THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Abstract

An investment function is a concept or strategy within economics that helps to identify the connection between shifts in the national income and the investment patterns that take place within that particular national economy. The present study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between investment and some of its key determinants – real gross domestic product, inflation, discount rate and the Composite Financial Development Index. The econometric analysis is based on annual data referring to the period from 1991 to 2011. Three investment functions are estimated – total investment, private investment and foreign direct investment, and each function is analyzed both by not taking and by taking into consideration the tructural changes that occurred in the survey period.