ЩЕ ИЗЧЕЗНЕ ЛИ БЪЛГАРСКАТА НАЦИЯ ПРЕЗ XXI ВЕК?

Abstract

The present paper focuses on the fluctuations of the main demographic variables of the Bulgarian nation during its transition to a free-market economy and its integration with the developed European countries. This process of integration means to increase the economic level and to adopt a new model of development of the country's economy, which will result in better demographic variables and will help the country survive in the 21st century in spite of the difficulties it faces at present. This study makes use of the regression method of statistical analysis for the leveling in a straight line (linear function) and in a parable (square function) of the population rate, birth rate, death rate, increase in the population of the country between 1992 and 1999 and between 1992 and 2000. To make the forecasts of these variables we use the one which shows a smaller mean quadratic error. We have come to particular conclusions based on reliable data, published in specialized newsletters of the National Institute of Statistics and on comparisons of the results of the forecasts that have been made applying the regression method of statistical analysis.