CAPLAN ON PROBABILITY: A CRITIQUE

Abstract

This paper addresses economic methodology, focusing particularly on Caplan’s (2003) probabilistic analysis and the problems therewith. The argument launched against Caplan is based on the fact that the said author either violates the rule of self-reference (his methodological statement) rule does not obey the standard it sets itself to judge the lower-level propositions of economics) or if it does not, Caplan is inevitably in the epistemic dark as to the probability of lower-level propositions. In the meantime, we will make an attempt at the exegesis of what Caplan may possibly mean by the notion of probability. Finally, it will be demonstrated that the criticism directed at Caplan does not apply to the methodology employed by Austrian economics.