The Impact Of Electronic Payment On Economic Growth In Algeria: A Quarterly Econometric Analysis Using The ARDL Model (2016–2025)

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between electronic payment indicators (e-POS terminal activity and online payments) and economic growth in Algeria, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the study addressed the limitations of a short time series by converting annual data into quarterly frequency via statistical interpolation, resulting in a sample of 35 observations. The Bounds Test results demonstrated the absence of a long-run cointegrating relationship, suggesting that Algeria's digital payment sector remains in a transitional phase and has not yet attained structural maturity. However, short-run dynamics revealed a positive and statistically significant effect of e-POS activity at the 10% level, whereas online payments exhibited a significant negative effect. Diagnostic tests, including CUSUM, confirmed the structural stability of the model, which possesses an explanatory power (Adjusted R-squared) of 90%. The study emphasizes the necessity of localizing digital services and fostering financial inclusion to integrate the informal economy into the formal banking system. Key recommendations include strengthening cybersecurity, expanding digital payment infrastructure across regions, and encouraging financial innovation.